2019-nCov in Japan

Today,Japan confirmed its first death caused by coronavirus (2019-nCov). This woman is around 80s living in Kanagawa Prefecture.[1] Her son in law,  around 70s taxi driver was also confirmed[2] as infected with 2019 coronavirus in 13rd, Feb.

There are still other 2 new cases in Japan. A surgeon around 50s in Wakayama Prefecture. A young man in his 20s from Chiba Prefecture was also positive. All of these 4 cases have no clear contact history with any foreign visitor.

80s woman case[3]

1/22 malaise continues
2/1 Diagnosed as pneumonia and hospitalized
2/6 Respiratory condition worsened and transferred
2/12 accept SARS-CoV-2 test
2/13 die and test was positive

Since the relationship between 80s-woman and driver. If they have contact history, virus may be transferred from the driver to his mother in law. The worst thing could be the hospital where the woman stayed. These two hospitals may take no strict measures as they took care this patient. Especially, in the first hospital, medical staffs and other patients have a great chance to infect 2019-nCov if they didn’t have further protection.

According to the research[4],  the R0 of 2019-nCov was expected to be 3.77 (95% CI 3.51-4.05). In the early research reported by Robin Thompson[5], he estimated R0 as 2.2. However, patients with 2019-nCov could have no symptom[6], even no fever on the basis of immunity.

Tokyo has busiest public traffic in the world. People close contact are unavoidable in the subway. The hidden infection will make everything worse.

[1]https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200213_50/
[2]https://this.kiji.is/600694890319545441?c=113147194022725109
[3]https://times.abema.tv/posts/7041509
[4]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021675v1
[5]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30068-2/fulltext
[6]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30154-9/fulltext

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